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PCB Growth Flattening

by: Dec 11,2013 1125 Views 0 Comments Posted in Engineering Technical

PCB technology PCB supplier PCB market Printed circuit board

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Printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturers may be facing a pretty flat growth year.

That's the latest assessment of market research house iSuppli Corp., which earlier had projected modest 4.5 percent worldwide PCB revenue growth for 2002, but now believes that's too optimistic.

"It now appears that even such a tepid growth forecast for the PCB market may be overly optimistic. iSuppli now is anticipating a year of little growth— growth that may flatten out as the year progresses," said Andrew Rassweiler, the market research firm's senior analyst for passives and interconnect," in a recent report.

"We expect to officially revise our PCB forecast downward shortly because of poor performance year-to-date," he added in an interview, with the exact iSuppli PCB projection not yet determined.

And a flat 2002 or a year with very minimal growth would follow a dreadful 2001, during which world PCB revenues slipped sharply. The final total world revenue number in 2001 was $32.5 billion for rigid boards, flex boards and IC substrates, according to iSuppli.

"The year 2001 was obviously a hard one for the entire electronic component supply chain, and PCBs were no exception, with revenues down roughly 24 percent." Rassweiler said, "And 2002 is looking flatter by the minute.

"There has been slower-than-expected demand for cell phones and other products this year and greater-than-expected PCB price erosion," Rassweiler said. "Capacity utilization levels have not improved Q1 to Q2, except in China. PCB price pressures will continue through the year."

And the entire industry eagerly awaits that killer app to show up, with nothing yet in sight. "There is no killer application that will drive us out of the funk that the whole component market is in," he said.

Meanwhile, Japanese PCB manufacturers claimed three of the top five spots on the world PCB revenue list for 2001, according to iSuppli. Ibiden of Japan was first last year with worldwide revenues of $911 million. CMK of Japan was second at $903 million. Sanmina-SCI of the United States came in third at $900 million. Nippon Mektron of Japan was fourth at $672 million, followed by Tyco PCB Group of the United States, fifth, at $603 million.

Taiwanese and Korean PCB suppliers also rose in the ranks, iSuppli said.

"Major manufacturers slipped and slid, but not all at the same pace, affecting the worldwide rankings of many prominent PCB suppliers," Rassweiler said.

But total PCB sales aren't everything, what a company makes is also crucial. "Rankings don't tell the whole story," Rassweiler said. "The strategies of PCB suppliers ultimately will determine how they fare, or even if they survive, in coming years. The top manufacturers are making a flight to high-value, high-margin products. A lot of new competition has arrived on the scene in the commodity, low-layer count board segment—i.e., boards with six layers or less—forcing prices and margins into the basement. Therefore, it is logical that manufacturers who are capable of producing high-tech, high-value PCBs do so to maintain their competitive edge. As a result, the top suppliers are focusing on a combination of IC substrates, HDI/microvia boards, and higher-layer-count boards and backplanes."

Where a PCB company does its manufacturing is also crucial. "Staying on the cutting edge of PCB technology won't cut it by itself," Rassweiler said. "Manufacturers must pursue the lowest cost of production."

Source: //www.seekic.com

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